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Bob Weber

I liked your calculation of odds. So much of this is familiar but you found a unique way to describe it.

A few years ago I independently confirmed Landscheidt’s observations by identifying a ‘solar cycle onset’ El Nino (ascending) and El Nino(s) after monthly F10.7 surpasses 120sfu for a sufficient time towards/after the cycle maximum (TL’s descending), and used my finding in 2014 to predict that the pending El Nino was contingent upon the return of higher solar activity, described in my 2018 AGU poster, with a clear TSI solar cycle influence on equatorial heat content and ENSO indices. [Correlations aren’t very high because TSI is very aperiodic over 12 years.]

Since ENSO activity is clearly directed by solar activity (figure 2), it is likely that the long-term correlation between both has a physical basis. If the effect of long-term changes in solar activity has to account for this lagged long-term effect on ENSO, its effect on global temperature must be much higher that the effect detected over a single solar cycle. By altering ENSO frequencies, solar activity might alter the decadal rates of warming, leading to periods of increased warming and periods of reduced warming (pauses).

This is precisely true. Long-term sunspot activity controls Nino1234 to a very high correlation, and 30-year integrated MEI drives a very strong linear correlation to 30-year HadSST3. It’s absolutely deterministic via solar activity.

These relationships together with the others I independently developed are the core of a reliable sun-climate prediction system that is ENSO-centered. I also predicted since last year the impending Nino34 drop we are finally seeing now from very low solar activity, then onto the next cycle, where solar cycle strength models based on my F10.7cm 120sfu solar-ocean warming threshold show the expected possible top of cycle and descending phase cycle warm pulse outcomes.

The goal 5-6 years ago was to make it into a practical solar-based data-driven climate science. We’re there!

The new cycle climate response should cement all these learnings of everyone’s here for everyone else. I hope SC25 is at least as strong if not stronger than SC24, as Leif forecasts, so we can see it more clearly. SC24 has provided so many examples of solar forcing; the next one will have similar analogs to compare.

Speaking of the solar minimum and the next cycle if we haven’t reached the minimum, this cycle is now 129 months long, one month shy of the SC23 length. It’s evident SC24 slowed down very early, a record early low level.

Solar wind effects on the magnetosphere have been known for long, and solar-wind-induced changes in the global electric circuit affect weather parameters at the troposphere (Lam & Tinsley 2016).

I think these effects (and cosmic rays) have comparatively negligible climate impacts.
“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered than answers that can’t be questioned.” Richard P. Feynman.

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