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  Registration Closed
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 09-18-2019, 12:37 PM - Forum: Site Announcement - No Replies

Due to numerous spammers trying to register to join, with no valid people wanting to join, I will CLOSE the registration section for a while.


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  Willis Eschenbauch
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 09-15-2019, 03:12 AM - Forum: Worthy Comments to read from the internet - No Replies


By chance I’ve been looking at the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Palmer Modified Drought Severity Index (PMDI) lately. I’ve used data from the NOAA CLIMDIV

Mssrs. Christy and McKitrick are correct that Palmer drought have high Hurst exponents. I have found the same in the CLIMDIV data. The CLIMDIV data for the PMDI is monthly from 1895, with 1495 monthly records (often expressed as N = 1495). The Hurst exponent of that CLIMDIV PMDI data is 0.86.

However, when adjusted for autocorrelation the effective N for that dataset is not 1495. Instead, the effective N is equal to 8. And with only 8 independent data points, statistical significance is … well … elusive.

The problem is that as an article in Nature magazine was headlined, “Nature Is Naturally Trendy”. Any dataset with a high Hurst exponent will naturally have many more trends than we’d expect from independent random data. And many climate datasets, including temperature and sea level datasets, have high Hurst exponents.

I’ve been beating this drum for a while. In 2015 I wrote a post called “A Way To Calculate Effective N” in which I discussed and experimentally verified the effect of high Hurst exponents on the statistics of things like the Nilometer data. Let me shamelessly recommend that post as an overview of the subject and the size of the effect of high Hurst exponents on statistical significance.

My thanks to the authors for highlighting what I see as a very important and frequently overlooked issue in the statistics of climate. It’s a hard nettle to grasp because it shows that many claimed trends, when adjusted for autocorrelation, are not even approaching statistical significance.


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  Bob Weber
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 09-05-2019, 08:56 PM - Forum: Worthy Comments to read from the internet - No Replies


I liked your calculation of odds. So much of this is familiar but you found a unique way to describe it.

A few years ago I independently confirmed Landscheidt’s observations by identifying a ‘solar cycle onset’ El Nino (ascending) and El Nino(s) after monthly F10.7 surpasses 120sfu for a sufficient time towards/after the cycle maximum (TL’s descending), and used my finding in 2014 to predict that the pending El Nino was contingent upon the return of higher solar activity, described in my 2018 AGU poster, with a clear TSI solar cycle influence on equatorial heat content and ENSO indices. [Correlations aren’t very high because TSI is very aperiodic over 12 years.]

Since ENSO activity is clearly directed by solar activity (figure 2), it is likely that the long-term correlation between both has a physical basis. If the effect of long-term changes in solar activity has to account for this lagged long-term effect on ENSO, its effect on global temperature must be much higher that the effect detected over a single solar cycle. By altering ENSO frequencies, solar activity might alter the decadal rates of warming, leading to periods of increased warming and periods of reduced warming (pauses).

This is precisely true. Long-term sunspot activity controls Nino1234 to a very high correlation, and 30-year integrated MEI drives a very strong linear correlation to 30-year HadSST3. It’s absolutely deterministic via solar activity.

These relationships together with the others I independently developed are the core of a reliable sun-climate prediction system that is ENSO-centered. I also predicted since last year the impending Nino34 drop we are finally seeing now from very low solar activity, then onto the next cycle, where solar cycle strength models based on my F10.7cm 120sfu solar-ocean warming threshold show the expected possible top of cycle and descending phase cycle warm pulse outcomes.

The goal 5-6 years ago was to make it into a practical solar-based data-driven climate science. We’re there!

The new cycle climate response should cement all these learnings of everyone’s here for everyone else. I hope SC25 is at least as strong if not stronger than SC24, as Leif forecasts, so we can see it more clearly. SC24 has provided so many examples of solar forcing; the next one will have similar analogs to compare.

Speaking of the solar minimum and the next cycle if we haven’t reached the minimum, this cycle is now 129 months long, one month shy of the SC23 length. It’s evident SC24 slowed down very early, a record early low level.

Solar wind effects on the magnetosphere have been known for long, and solar-wind-induced changes in the global electric circuit affect weather parameters at the troposphere (Lam & Tinsley 2016).

I think these effects (and cosmic rays) have comparatively negligible climate impacts.

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Posted by: Sunsettommy - 09-03-2019, 04:43 PM - Forum: Worthy Comments to read from the internet - No Replies


“How the “Greenhouse Effect” Is Built upon Arrhenius’ Legacy of Error: Misattribution, Misunderstanding, and Energy Creation.

Arrhenius’ first error was to assume that greenhouses and hotboxes work as a radiation trap. Fourier explained quite clearly that such structures simply prevent the replenishment of the air inside, allowing it to reach much higher temperatures than are possible in circulating air (Fourier, 1824, translated by Burgess, 1837, p. 12; Fourier, 1827, p. 586). Yet, as we have seen in the previous quotation of Arrhenius, this fundamental misunderstanding of greenhouses is attributed by Arrhenius to Fourier.

2.1 Misattribution versus What Fourier Really Found

Contrary to what Arrhenius (1896, 1906b) and many popular authors may claim (Weart, 2003; Flannery, 2005; Archer, 2009), Fourier did not consider the atmosphere to be anything like glass. In fact, Fourier (1827, p. 587) rejected the comparison by stipulating the impossible condition that, in order for the atmosphere to even remotely resemble the workings of a hotbox or greenhouse, layers of the air would have to solidify without affecting the air’s optical properties. What Fourier (1824, translated by Burgess, 1837, p. 12) actually wrote stands in stark contrast to Arrhenius’ claims about Fourier’s ideas:

“In short, if all the strata of air of which the atmosphere is formed, preserved their density with their transparency, and lost only the mobility which is peculiar to them, this mass of air, thus become solid, on being exposed to the rays of the sun, would produce an effect the same in kind with that we have just described. The heat, coming in the state of light to the solid earth, would lose all at once, and almost entirely, its power of passing through transparent solids: it would accumulate in the lower strata of the atmosphere, which would thus acquire very high temperatures. We should observe at the same time a diminution of the degree of acquired heat, as we go from the surface of the earth.”

A statement to the same effect can be found in Fourier (1827, p. 586). This demonstrates the sheer dissonance between these statements and what proponents of the “Greenhouse Effect” claim that Fourier says in their support. Moreover, I am not the first author to have discovered this fact by reading Fourier for myself (e.g. Fleming, 1999; Gerlich & Tscheuschner, 2007 and 2009). Furthermore, in his conclusion, the optical effect of air on heat is dropped by Fourier (1824, translated by Burgess, 1837, pp. 17-18) and Fourier (1827, pp. 597-598) which both state:

“The earth receives the rays of the sun, which penetrate its mass, and are converted into non-luminous heat: it likewise possesses an internal heat with which it was created, and which is continually dissipated at the surface: and lastly, the earth receives rays of light and heat from innumerable stars, in the midst of which is placed the solar system. These are three general causes which determine the temperature of the earth.”

Fourier’s fame has, in fact, nothing to do with any theory of atmospheric or surface temperature. This fame was earned years before such musings, when Fourier derived the law of physics that governs heat flow, and was subsequently named after him. About this, Fourier (1824, p. 166; Translation by Burgess, 1837, p. 19) remarks:

“Perhaps other properties of radiating heat will be discovered, or causes which modify the temperatures of the globe. But all the principle laws of the motion of heat are known. This theory, which rests upon immutable foundations, constitutes a new branch of mathematical sciences.”

As you can see, Fourier admits that his work is constrained to the net movement of heat. In fact, nowhere does Fourier differentiate between radiative and, for example, “kinetic” heat transfer, because the means to tell the difference were not available when Fourier studied heat flow. What this tells us is that Fourier’s Law, and only Fourier’s Law, can describe the transfer of heat between bodies in thermal contact. Thus the distribution of heat between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth, with which it has thermal contact, cannot be correctly calculated using the radiative transfer equations derived from Boltzmann (1884) because the thermal contact of these bodies makes this a question of Fourier’s Law. However, to better understand this it is necessary to explore the motion of heat and the modes of heat transfer more thoroughly than did Arrhenius.”

from… Timothy Casey

The Shattered Greenhouse: How simple physics demolishes the ” Greenhouse Effect”

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  David Middleton
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 08-26-2019, 10:22 PM - Forum: Worthy Comments to read from the internet - No Replies


You’re absolutely right… And you are probably also missing some humor. I can’t type without being at least a little sarcastic.

I have numerous posts dealing with Neoglaciation. Glaciers are always advancing or retreating. Advancing is always bad.

The Holocene Sea Level Highstand

A Geological Perspective on Arctic Sea Ice Extent (AKA PIP25: “Miracle on Ice”)

A Geological Perspective of the Greenland Ice Sheet

President Trump says our climate is “fabulous” and that “the climate, the hottest in modern human history, can change back on its own.”

“Terrifying Sea-Level Prediction Now Looks Far Less Likely”… But “marine ice-cliff instability” is “just common sense”

“The end for small glaciers” or anthropogenic circular reasoning?

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  The Holocene Sea Level Highstand
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 08-26-2019, 10:18 PM - Forum: Science Presentations - No Replies

From Watts Up With That?

Guest geological note by David Middleton

Most skeptics are familiar with the Warmunist efforts to erase the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age.

[Image: wg1figts-5.gif?w=700&ssl=1]
                                       figure 0. Mann’s infamous Hockey Stick (IPCC, 2001)

However, many skeptics may not be aware of efforts to erase another paleoclimatological feature: The Holocene Highstand.
What is a highstand?

A highstand is one phase of the sea level cycle (AAPG Wiki)

  • Rising
  • Highstand
  • Falling
  • Lowstand
The highstand is the maximum sea level achieved during the cycle.

The Holocene Epoch

The Holocene Epoch was recently formally subdivided into three stages:

  1. Greenlandian Stage = Lower or Early-Holocene. 11.70 ka to 8.33 ka
  2. Northgrippian Stage = Middle or Mid-Holocene. 8.33 ka to 4.25 ka
  3. Meghalayan Stage = Upper or Late-Holocene. 4.25 ka to present
The abbreviation “ka” refers to thousands of years ago. Lower, Middle and Upper are generally used when referring to rock-time units. Early, Mid and Late are generally used when referring to time units (Haile, 1987). Prior to the formal subdivision, Lower/Early, Middle/Mid and Upper/Late were commonly used; however there was no formal nomenclature. The fake word, “Anthropocene” is not used by real geologists.

There is also an informal climatological subdivision of the Holocene:
  • Preboreal 10 ka–9
  • Boreal 9 ka–8 ka
  • Atlantic 8 ka–5 ka
  • Subboreal 5 ka–2.5 ka
  • Subatlantic 2.5 ka–present

Source: Wikipedia


Lot more in the link with numerous charts and a full reference section on published papers.

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  Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (July '19: +0.38°C) Global Warming as a Natural Resp
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 08-19-2019, 02:31 PM - Forum: Science Presentations - No Replies

From Dr. Spencers Global Warming website:
Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.

October 20, 2008 (updated December 29, 2008)


A simple climate model forced by satellite-observed changes in the Earth’s radiative budget associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is shown to mimic the major features of global average temperature change during the 20th Century – including three-quarters of the warming trend. A mostly-natural source of global warming is also consistent with mounting observational evidence that the climate system is much less sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions than the IPCC’s climate models simulate.


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  Warmer is Richer
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 08-13-2019, 06:05 AM - Forum: Science Presentations - No Replies

Thomas Gale Moore
Hoover Institution
Stanford University

Does hot weather spawn laziness, indolence, and poverty? History says no! During the two warm periods shown in the chart mankind prospered, while during the cold humans suffered. The transitions, however, were often difficult, especially for people who lived in areas adversely affected.

The last Ice Age persisted for about 100,000 years, during which human progress was incredibly slow -- a few improvements in hunting tools and some cave sketches, that's all. Over the last 12 millennia of interglacial warmth, however, modern man has advanced rapidly. As the climate turned more hospitable, agriculture developed everywhere -- in the Middle East, China, North and South America, and Africa, an event of inestimable significance.

The domestication of plants and animals allowed for a population explosion and the founding of cities. A large settled community could afford specialists who made farm tools, crafted pots, and traded not only with locals but with outsiders. Art and science flowered because those with wealth could afford to maintain individuals who would create elaborate pottery, textiles, and musical instruments and who could record eclipses and star movements.

In Europe and the Near East, the first warm period produced a technological revolution -- the use of bronze, the fermentation of wine, and the invention of writing. With a more benign climate and less severe storms, the Baltic region shipped amber along the Atlantic coast to the Mediterranean. During the late Bronze Age, the Alpine glaciers shrank to one-fifth of their nineteenth century span, enabling merchants to carry goods through the Brenner Pass, the gateway between northern and southern Europe.

Cold, wet, and stormy weather returned from 550 A.D. until around 800. Trade within Europe dwindled or disappeared as the mountain passes became choked with ice and snow. From the ninth century, when the climate was still quite cool, to the eleventh, which was somewhat warmer, medieval Europe was almost totally agricultural. The few cities that survived consisted mainly of religious seats with their clerics and lay attendants.

The three centuries beginning with the eleventh, during which the climate became distinctly more benign, witnessed a profound revolution which, by the late 1200s had transformed the landscape into an economy filled with merchants, vibrant towns and great fairs. Crop failures became less frequent; new territories were brought under control. With a more clement climate and a more reliable food supply, the population mushroomed.

The historian Charles Van Doren claimed that: "the ... three centuries, from about 1000 to about 1300, became one of the most optimistic, prosperous, and progressive periods in European history." All across Europe, the population went on an unparalleled building spree, erecting at huge cost spectacular cathedrals and public edifices. Ponderous Romanesque churches gave way to soaring Gothic cathedrals. Virtually all the magnificent religious shrines that we visit in awe today were started by the optimistic populations of the eleventh through the thirteenth centuries, although many remained unfinished for centuries.

Throughout the continent, economic activity blossomed. Banking, insurance, and finance developed; a money economy became well entrenched; manufacturing of textiles expanded to levels never seen before. Farmers in medieval England launched a thriving wine industry. Good wines demand warm springs free of frosts, substantial summer warmth and sunshine without too much rain, and sunny days in the fall. Winters cannot dip below zero Fahrenheit for any significant period. The northern limit for grapes during the Middle Ages was about 300 miles above the current commercial wine areas in France and Germany.

The medieval warm period, which started a century earlier in Asia, benefited the rest of the globe as well. From the ninth through the thirteenth centuries, farming spread into northern portions of Russia. In the Far East, Chinese and Japanese farmers migrated north into Manchuria, the Amur Valley and northern Japan. The Vikings founded colonies in Iceland and Greenland, then actually green. Scandinavian seafarers discovered "Vinland" along the East Coast of North America.

During the Northern Sung Dynasty (961 A.D. to 1127), one of the warmest times, real earnings in China reached a level not seen again until late in the twentieth century. The wealth of those centuries gave rise to a great flowering of art, writing, science, and the highest rate of technological advance in Chinese history. Chinese landscape painting with its exquisite detail and color achieved its apotheosis.

Over roughly the same period, the peoples of the Indian subcontinent also prospered. Society was rich enough to create impressive temples, beautiful sculpture, and elaborate carvings. Seafaring empires thrived in Java and Sumatra. In the early twelfth century, the predecessors of the Cambodians, the Khmers, built the magnificent temple of Angkor Wat. In the eleventh century Burmese civilization reached a pinnacle with the construction of thousands of temples in its capital, Pagan.

In the ninth century, the indigenous peoples of North America pushed their agriculture northward up the Mississippi, Missouri, and Illinois river basins. By 1000 they were farming in southwestern and western Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. The Anasazi civilization of Mesa Verde flourished; the Mexicans began constructing their pyramids.

The end of the medieval warmth and the start of the Mini Ice Age brought hardship around the world. The poorer climate in Europe after the thirteenth century halted the economic boom of the High Middle Ages. Innovation slowed sharply. Except for military advances, technological improvements ceased for the next 150 years. The economic slump of 1337 brought on the collapse of the great Italian bank, Scali, leading to one of the first recorded major financial crises. Construction on churches and cathedrals stopped. The Mini Ice Age cut off the colonists in Greenland, leading to their eventual demise.

At its coldest, the Mini Ice Age devastated the fishing industry as cod disappeared from the North Atlantic. Besides forcing the Anasazis out of their pueblos, the poor weather reduced incomes in China, raised food prices, and killed the orange trees in Kiangsi province.

If the climate is to become warmer or colder, let's hope for the warmer world. Humans would be better off with higher temperatures. History shows that people did well during the hottest periods and poorly during the coldest. If the climate becomes warmer, we should welcome the shift.


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Posted by: Sunsettommy - 08-06-2019, 05:48 AM - Forum: Climate and Weather - Replies (3)

This thread will contain his climate based poems, I think they are great and humorous too. All of them are from Jo Nova science blog.

Some scientists opt to be seers,
Deluded by false climate fears,
Then project and assume,
A future of doom,
In papers acclaimed by their peers.



Any skeptic should not be surprised,
When alarmists so rashly surmised,
That some warming they think,
Caused a few birds to shrink,
Leaving wagtails a tinch undersized.



The Earth-saving climate-change sort,
Fly their jets to a private resort,
Where this choice elite few,
Tell the world what to do,
As they hang out for days and cavort.


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  Gogues gallery of leftists for climate propaganda
Posted by: Sunsettommy - 08-05-2019, 07:43 PM - Forum: Climate Politics - No Replies

Here is an article with a background of a select number of people who wants to IMPOSE a world order on YOU, the little people they so disdainfully look down on:

Sto Vuono

The Globalism of Climate: How Faux Environmental Concern Hides Desire to Rule the World

Barbara McKenzie

February 23, 2019


Barbara McKenzie Uncategorized February 23, 2019

[Edit: it was in 1988, not 1986, that Hansen and Wirth sabotaged the air conditioning in a US Senate committee room in order to make their global warming point]

The primary function of ‘global warming’ alarmism, aka as the ‘climate crisis,’ is to facilitate a one-world government, administered by the United Nations bureaucracy.

Regardless of the science involved (or lack of it), there are a number of indisputable facts about the background to anthropogenic global warming alarmism:

  • The long-standing plan for global government by an elite;
  • The one-to-one equivalence between the globalists and the creators of climate alarmism, represented above all by David Rockefeller and his protégé Maurice Strong;
  • The manifest intention of UN reports on ‘climate’ and the environment to give more power to the UN bureaucracy and to corporate-owned non-government organisations (NGOs).


Notice that all these people in the link are leftists, who wants to shove Authoritarian Socialism down your throat, the same people who have been wrong many times with their absurd end of the world predictions (ok a little hyperbole, but dam it, they employ that all the time!) and continually promote the LIE that the climate is in a crisis that must be fought against using utopian anti-fossil messages.

They want you to go back to the stone age, to "save the planet", which is dishonest and misleading.

Wake up people! 

You are being LIED to!!!

There is no climate scare in progress, never has been. They promote it because they want to take power and freedom away from YOU, the "little people" who wants a good productive life and freedom to live it.

There are real environmental concerns out there, that are being pushed aside because of the CO2 bogeyman, democrats seem terrified of a trace gas, they declared war against it, even though over 30,000 ppm comes right out of their nose and mouths on each breath. They even called it a pollutant!!!


The ignorant morons fails to realize that CO2 is an essential part of the PHOTOSYNTHESIS process, you laughing about their stupidity yet?

Biology Wise


What is Photosynthesis?
The process that plants carry out in the presence of radiant energy in order to create their food is known as photosynthesis. This process is one of the reasons because of which man and other forms of life are alive on the Earth today. This process basically occurs in the green parts of leaves. This process requires the following ingredients.
[b]Carbon dioxide[/b]

Soil does not become directly involved in the process of photosynthesis, but the plant absorbs some important ingredients, that are present in the soil. Chlorophyll is actually a chemical that is found in most of the plants and imparts green color to them. The process of photosynthesis actually becomes possible due to the chlorophyll that is present in plant leaves. During this process of food generation, the following reaction takes place:

6 CO2 + 6 H2O → (in the presence of sunlight) C6H12O6 + 6 O2


6CO2 molecules per process are being used to make carbohydrates for plants, to live and grow on.

Quote: Animals and human beings in return breathe out carbon dioxide during the process of cellular respiration. This carbon dioxide is in turn used by the plants to make more food

Only ignorant fools will promote a galaxy class attack on one of the primary building blocks for life.

CO2 is a hard working hero to the world, it deserves respect and awe that it has earned, in serving life for around 3 BILLION years now.

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