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Paradoxical Earth.. Why what we see doesn't equal AGW
Paradoxical Earth.. Complex responses often misinterpreted.

As I watch many claim global warming for the current weather events, it appears it is time for some sanity and a reality check. The earth has always been a paradoxical presentation and its high time people were taught that what they see is in far to short a time span for any realistic determination to be made about what our climate is doing.

When the sun is active the flows from the sun, like wind, push against our atmosphere. As the earth rotates this pressure pushes atmosphere to the poles increasing the mass of the atmosphere above them. The NASA photo below shows how solar wind pushes against the magnetosphere and against our atmosphere.

[Image: upload_2018-1-17_21-32-30-png.172129] 


When the solar wind reduces so do the pressures against our atmosphere. If you spin a partially filled balloon and apply a wind pressure against it the center will flatten and the ends round. This is what happens to earths atmosphere.

When there is high pressures against our atmosphere from the sun, the depth of atmosphere above the equator decreases and above the poles increases. This allows greater energy to the oceans and retains energy at the poles.

[Image: upload_2018-1-17_21-44-4-png.172131]

This allows the polar jet to reside high in latitudes and warming of the equator will push towards the polls keeping the polar jet tightly constrained to the poles. This is a warming globe.

With cooling and low solar influence things are very different. With low pressures (as we have today) against the magnetosphere and atmosphere, the mass of the atmosphere is flung out due to earths rotation, allowing the atmosphere near the poles to be drawn to the equator.

[Image: upload_2018-1-17_21-51-50-png.172132]

The draw down of atmosphere causes the polar cells to thin and widen pulling the polar jet to mid latitudes. This results in a paradoxical warming of the arctic regions and massive cooling of the mid latitudes. The thin atmosphere mass above the poles allows heat escape to accelerate. This condition also allows for crossover warming of the polar region. This is caused by the destabilization of the primary polar low pressure system, allowing it to be displaced.

What we see today is a natural and normal presentation of the earth entering a cooling phase. With Solar influence now slated to be very low for the next 30-60 years our cooling is just beginning.

As we near the new thermal equilibrium of the earths new energy input/output levels, the zones will return to what we have seen as normal over recent years. When that happens, the poles will freeze over rapidly and glaciation will resume. Many Northern Hemisphere glaciers have already begun to increase in size. The ice mass on Greenland has tripled in just three years.

This is just the beginning of the cooling cycle. NASA and NOAA have some differing points of view but there are a good number of things which do not add up, many things we do not fully understand.

Earths atmosphere is not uniform around the globe. The thickness changes daily dependent on the opposing solar force applied. This has some other effects on solar input to the system as well. By decreasing the amount of atmosphere above the  equatorial regions there is less atmosphere to stop down-welling energy from hitting the surface or entering earths oceans. In an active solar cycle the oceans will receive greater input.

In our currently cooling world the wide and powerful polar jets cools the mid-latitudes while the heat is released above the pole from the reduced mass of the atmosphere and the heat being widely spread out, high in the reduced atmosphere. Again a paradoxical presentation of a warming arctic in a cooling world.

In both a cooling world and a warming world, when we reach near equilibrium the polar jet will expand to its median path or retract to its median path. Right now were no where near the median path.

None of this fits in many peoples minds because they do not know how the system works or why. Were just getting a good scratch on the surface. This is a very simplified explanation but one that is desperately needed to teach people that any man caused warming is extremely exaggerated.
Two of the items that no current GCM takes into account are changes in the earths atmospheric depth and another is the changes in the spectral output of the down-welling solar radiation.  A recent paper looks at these very questions.


"We have identified a sample of 33 Sun-like stars observed by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) with the short-wavelength spectrographs that have ground-based detections of chromospheric Ca ii H+K activity. Our objective is to determine if these observations can provide an estimate of the decrease in ultraviolet (UV) surface flux associated with a transition from a normal stellar cycle to a grand-minimum state. The activity detections, corrected to solar metallicity, span the range $-5.16\lt \mathrm{log}{R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -4.26$, and eight stars have log ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }\lt -5.00$. The IUE-observed flux spectra are integrated over the wavelength range 1250–1910 Å, transformed to surface fluxes, and then normalized to solar B − V. These normalized surface fluxes show a strong linear relationship with activity ${R}_{{HK}}^{{\prime} }$ (R 2 = 0.857 after three outliers are omitted). From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum. The 95% confidence interval in this grand-minimum estimate is 5.5%–8.4%. An alternative estimate is provided by the IUE observations of τ Cet (HD 10700), a star having strong evidence of being in a grand-minimum state, and this star's normalized surface flux is 23.0 ± 5.7% lower than solar cycle minimum."


As you can see, a UV decrease of almost 9% is expected and will last 60-90 years. This will cause massive cooling of the oceans all by itself.  If the solar wind stays low, the increased equatorial atmosphere will cause further loss of energy to the oceans. We could see upwards of a 12-14% drop in the UV spectrum, at sea level, from our sun for a prolonged period of time. The loss net effect of 4.1-6.8 W/m^2.  

We are in for some serious cooling. Let us hope that the sun doesn't go to sleep and stay asleep for 90,000 years before it becomes active again. We still don't know the primary causes of our Glacial Cycles but this could very well be the cause.
Yes there are signs of a cooling world upon us as pointed out on the changes of the UV output and the declining intake of UV energy into the ocean waters. Too many people focus on the TSI index which doesn't usually change all that much, but what they often overlook is the large swings in changes of UV and even of Visible light too which also changes a bit, which are important because UV and Yellow light carry a lot more energy to the continental surface and ocean waters than IR does, which is actually a low level energy flow.

The summer insolation changes in the far northern regions are also important, as it is a significant downward change spread out over centuries. it is the Milankovitch effect that are often not properly addressed, especially since the world has been in a long cooling trend that seems to have started around 3,000 years ago. 

Here is a chart that shows the increasing decline that began around 1,000 b.c

[Image: Temps-declining-for-10000-yrs.png]

We are now enduring the coldest millennium in 10000 years


Most of the short warming bursts are occurring during the El-Nino phases, otherwise no warming to a slight cooling trend, which indicate CO2 doesn't really have much of an effect.

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