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No One Can Understand My Global Warming Argument
#1
These three postings come from a forum I occasionally post in, this particular thread is worth following:


Here is a post worth reading about since the Global  temperature data has never quite made sense to me in recent years, but kept quiet over it, until now. Here is POST ONE talking about something most people don't consider:

Quote:I have a solid argument to the effect that there has been no significant change in global temperatures for the last 100 years. Unfortunately, it's based on advanced statistical data analysis concepts, and nobody can understand it.

It starts with the idea that the temperature record is a time series with a high degree of autocorrelation.

See? Lost you already. [Image: icon_smile2.gif]

I could simplify the argument by using an analogy -- Brownian Motion!

Not any better, eh?

Albert Einstein won the Nobel Prize for this, so I guess it's not that easy.

Regardless, if you put a tiny pollen particle in a Petri dish filled with pure water the fact that the particle will wander all the way from one side of the dish to the other is not evidence that there are water currents in the dish. It's just random motion.

Huh you might say, well POST THREE expands on this line of thought through a chart generation exercise:


Quote:Oh! So it's what Tim P. said

Here's a screen print uh 4 actually from an Excel random chart generator.


[Image: image.png]

It's set up to always start at about the same place but then it's a "Drunk Walk"
of +(RAND()-0.5)*0.15 for each year and a plot of a running 5 year median.

Well anyway the four results were from around 100 trials. Some trials go
right off the chart and then a few look amazingly like the world temperature
time lines we've all seen. In this case HADCRUT 3 or 4 was used, doesn't
much make a difference.

So? Could temperature over the last 170 year be more random than anything
else?

Beginning to get the idea that we might be fooling ourselves?

Did you read POST TWO?
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#2
I think we need to expand on our search for evidence on what is going on beyond a one dimensional "global temperature record" that will tell us what the real trends are.There are plenty of climate markers we could be using that will tell us if it is getting cold or warmer, such as Tree Lines, Snow lines on the hills and Mountain sides, long term changes on glacial movement, size of ice fields and so on. 

Yet we focus so much on a single parameter that we could be sniffing down a road leading to a dead end, while the long term underlying cooling that is obvious when you look at Tree Lines, Snow lines, changes in glacial fields, and so on, gets unnoticed by most people. People who always thinks in the short term will always fail to see the whole picture, which is why this petering out "global warming" trend is actually a warning that we ride on small bubbles of warm weather, while the underlying LONG TERM cooling is always continuing. 

That is why I despair when so many people ignore that to focus on a very narrow time frame when a small warming time is visible, they don't understand there have been a few decades warming at a time then a cooling trend, then back to warming, but the 8,000 year trend is always a cooling that accelerated around 3,000 bc.

People need to learn to look at the big climate trend picture!
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