04-18-2019, 03:12 PM

That's right, CH4 is not as scary as portrayed. But watts per

square meter doesn't mean anything to most people including me.

I'm not picking on you, I always run into the watts per square

meter lingo when I start looking for this answer. But it's an

answer that will mean something. After all Climate Change is all

about temperature. Just look at all the arguments over hottest

year ever etc. Temperature is what people want to know.

So your answer didn't tell me what the temperature would be for a

given increase in methane. Didn't say how long it would take either.

But you did show your work (-:

I should have asked, if you double methane how much and how long?

The how long part is easy. This web page

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/t...#global_growth

tells us that CH4 is in the air at about 1850 ppb and is

increasing at an average rate of about 6 ppb which works

out to around 300 years to double its concentration.

The temperature part should be easy because just like CO2

the climate sensitivity for CH4 should be well known. But

it's not. I'm talking the absolute value without feed backs.

For CO2 it's 1.2 K per doubling. I'm pretty sure the value

for doubling methane is somewhere between 0.1 and 0.3 K.

I've gotten to those answers by asking and some crude

arithmetic. The crude arithmetic got me to 0.18 K.

Here's the crude arithmetic:

Methane's concentration is about 2 ppm and an equal mass

of CO2 is about 0.7 ppm. Adding 2 ppm to the concentration

of methane is a 100% increase, and adding 0.7 ppm to CO2

is a 0.2% increase.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that a 0.2% increase

in CO2 won't run the temperature up very much and 84 times

that isn't very much either.

0.7 ppm/400 ppm x 1.2 K x 84 = 0.18 K

So in general terms, how much will a given rise in methane

run up the temperature? The answer is not much and it will

take a long time.

If you read all this, thanks.

From HERE

square meter doesn't mean anything to most people including me.

I'm not picking on you, I always run into the watts per square

meter lingo when I start looking for this answer. But it's an

answer that will mean something. After all Climate Change is all

about temperature. Just look at all the arguments over hottest

year ever etc. Temperature is what people want to know.

So your answer didn't tell me what the temperature would be for a

given increase in methane. Didn't say how long it would take either.

But you did show your work (-:

I should have asked, if you double methane how much and how long?

The how long part is easy. This web page

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/t...#global_growth

tells us that CH4 is in the air at about 1850 ppb and is

increasing at an average rate of about 6 ppb which works

out to around 300 years to double its concentration.

The temperature part should be easy because just like CO2

the climate sensitivity for CH4 should be well known. But

it's not. I'm talking the absolute value without feed backs.

For CO2 it's 1.2 K per doubling. I'm pretty sure the value

for doubling methane is somewhere between 0.1 and 0.3 K.

I've gotten to those answers by asking and some crude

arithmetic. The crude arithmetic got me to 0.18 K.

Here's the crude arithmetic:

Methane's concentration is about 2 ppm and an equal mass

of CO2 is about 0.7 ppm. Adding 2 ppm to the concentration

of methane is a 100% increase, and adding 0.7 ppm to CO2

is a 0.2% increase.

It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that a 0.2% increase

in CO2 won't run the temperature up very much and 84 times

that isn't very much either.

0.7 ppm/400 ppm x 1.2 K x 84 = 0.18 K

So in general terms, how much will a given rise in methane

run up the temperature? The answer is not much and it will

take a long time.

If you read all this, thanks.

From HERE